Hermon, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KCAR 141242
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
842 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued Flood Watch for the North from 2pm Today through 8am
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible into
Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Locally heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible into
Monday

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
With flash flood guidance as low as 1 inch in and hour and 2
inches in 6 hours, and with Convective Allowing Models showing
potential for 1-2" of rainfall in scattered locations across the
North in 1-3 hours from early afternoon into Monday morning
across the North, have issued a Flood Watch for this area from
2pm Today through 8am Monday. Across Downeast Maine and the
Bangor Penobscot Region, it looks like any heavier precipitation
holds off until tonight. Also, it looks like convection could
be more progressive/less likely to train, so confidence in
flooding in this region is not as high at this time. Will
continue to assess the flooding risk in this area, and its
possible a flood watch could be issued for some or all of this
area later today.

Occluding low pressure system moves in from the west. By this
morning, warm front moves across the region, bringing in plenty
of moisture. Pre-frontal troughing could help produce some
morning showers across the northern areas, which could use up
some of the instability in the northern region before the
primary severe threat later in the afternoon. Anticipating
partially to mostly cloudy skies during the day today, but
frontal passage will provide enough lift for storm development.

In terms of the severe threat, there is a plethora of favorable
parameters to hint at severe storm development. During the
afternoon period, elevated levels of CAPE >1000-1500 J/kg, low-
level lapse rates 8-9 C/km, PWATs roughly 1.25 - 1.50 inches and
a couple hundred J of DCAPE point towards the chance for severe
thunderstorms that could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
There is a chance for some small hail to develop with these
storms. There is a non-zero chance for tornado development as
well, with low LCL heights, and plenty of shear. Highest areas
of concern are the Central Highlands and Upper Penobscot Valley.
Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall on already moist soil
could cause some hydro concerns, leading to some potential
flooding in localized areas. For reference, 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall within 1 hour, in regions north of Bangor, could cause
flooding. Make sure to have multiple ways to get warning
information, and stay weather aware!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today and tonight...Early IFR/LIFR due to low cigs/vsby will
trend generally VFR/MVFR today, periods of rain showers and
thunderstorms at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL. Otherwise, generally VFR
at KBGR and KBHB. Thunderstorms at northern terminals could
bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. LLWS
starts late tonight at KBGR/KBHB. Ran showers continue into
tonight, but thunderstorm potential decreases past midnight.
Expecting a return to IFR/LIFR conditions due to cigs/vsby.

Monday...MVFR or lower possible Monday morning, with some
morning fog. Also isolated thunderstorms possible at Downeast
terminals Monday morning. Potential for isolated thunder at KFVE
and KCAR Monday evening. S winds 5-10KT shifting to W winds,
with gusts 15-20KT.

Monday night-Wednesday...VFR. WSW G15-20KT possible Tuesday
afternoon.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and possible TS. SE winds
10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas ramp up to Small Craft criteria tonight, over all
waters. Fog is expected to develop overnight, reducing
visibility. Rain showers possible Monday. Winds from the S today
into Monday.

Conditions drop below small craft levels on Monday afternoon
and remain that way into the middle of next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ASB/PM/JMM
AVIATION...ASB/JS/JMM