Hermon, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS61 KCAR 140745
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
245 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in a Winter Storm from Wednesday into Thursday has
greatly decreased.

Confidence is increasing in mainly dry conditions across the
North Wednesday-Friday of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered snow showers today, which could become heavy at
times, reducing visibility and deteriorating travel conditions
in the north.

2) There is the potential for snowfall mainly across the North
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with possible impacts to the
afternoon commute.

3) Dry conditions likely Wednesday-Friday across the North,
with a very low chance of snow Wednesday into Thursday across
Downeast Maine and the Bangor region, otherwise it should be dry
there as well. Other than possible impacts to both commutes on
Wednesday and the Thursday morning commute across Downeast Maine
and the Bangor Region, no impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered snow showers today, which could
become heavy at times, reducing visibility and deteriorating
travel conditions in the north.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Occluding low pressure system with
strong vorticity maximum approaches from the northwest this
morning. Associated cold front crosses through the region from
northwest to southeast throughout the day today, bringing
isolated snow showers in the north and east today. Little
moisture with this system, however, with PWATS staying at or
below 0.25. Higher moisture values found in the north. Plenty of
instability to result in some periods of heavier snow showers
today. There is a nonzero chance for some brief snow squalls,
but confidence in these meeting exact squall criteria (winds
30mph or higher with 1/4 mile visibility) is very low. Expect
snow to move into the northwest by daybreak, in the northeast by
late morning, and eastern portions of the region by noon.

Generally anticipating snowfall accumulations around 1-1.5
inches in the north, with potential for 2+ inches in areas where
heavier snow showers move through. Around 0.5 to 1 inches in
the North Woods and western areas. Around 0.5 inch or so around
the Central Highlands region. Snow moves out late Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is the potential for snowfall mainly
across the North Tuesday and Tuesday night, with possible
impacts to the afternoon commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A northern stream trough
approaches from the west Tuesday, with its axis exiting to the
east Tuesday night. This will allow for a clipper like system at
the surface to dive SE from eastern Hudson Bay on Tuesday, then
track into the southern Maritimes Tuesday night, dragging its
associated cold front across the region.

A combination of weak low level warm advection and positive
vorticity advection ahead of the northern stream trough should
bring some light to possibly moderate snow across mainly the
North from Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the surface cold
front. At this time, most likely accumulations will be light,
but moderate accumulations cannot be completely ruled out due to
the inherent uncertainty of this time range. This could impact
the afternoon commute as a result. Across Downeast Maine and the
Bangor Region, where forcing is weaker, there is a reasonable
chance that little or no precipitation is received from this
system. If any precipitation does occur it should fairly quickly
change to all rain Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Dry conditions likely Wednesday-Friday across
the North, with a very low chance of snow Wednesday into
Thursday across Downeast Maine and the Bangor region, otherwise
it should be dry there as well. Other than possible impacts to
both commutes on Wednesday and the Thursday morning commute
across Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region, no impacts are
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Most model solutions keep the
precipitation shield associated with low pressure tracking to
the south Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of a northern
stream trough. However a few models and ensemble members do
bring the precipitation shield with this system into Downeast
Maine and in some instances the Bangor Region. It should be cold
enough for snow, if any precipitation does fall. For now, it
appears the heaviest, if not all of the, precipitation remains
offshore.

Behind this system, deep layered ridging builds in through
Friday, keeping things dry. After temperatures a few degrees
above normal on Wednesday, temperatures should return to near or
below normal levels for the remainder of the work week. &&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Today - tonight: Generally VFR at northern terminals early this
morning, but then rapidly deteriorates to MVFR/IFR this morning
with snow showers moving in, that could become heavy at times.
These snow showers could rapidly reduce visibility. Best chance
for these heavier showers are at northern terminals, during the
afternoon. Snow tapers off later tonight. Generally VFR at
southern terminals, with a slight chance of stray vicinity
showers at KBGR. Winds generally light and variable this
morning, becoming S at 5-10kts during the day. Winds shift to
the NW overnight.

Sunday: Generally VFR. NW winds at 5-10kts, with gusts up to
20kts possible.

Sunday night-Monday evening: VFR. S winds G15-20KT possible
Monday evening.

Late Monday night-Tuesday night: MVFR or lower possible at
northern terminals in snow, with VFR likely at southern
terminals. S winds G15-20KT possible late Monday night.

Wednesday...VFR at northern terminals, a very low chance of
MVFR or lower at southern terminals in snow. NW winds G15-25KT
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions below Small Craft criteria today, before ramping up
to Small Craft criteria late tonight through Sunday afternoon.
Seas could reach 5ft over the far outer waters Sunday. Light
freezing spray Saturday night into Sunday. SW winds today,
becoming NW on Sunday.

Conditions should be below SCA limits for all waters from
Sunday night-Wednesday, with the possible exception of a low
chance of SCA conditions on the coastal ocean waters early
Sunday evening.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB/PM
AVIATION...AB/PM
MARINE...AB/PM